A study from Nemertes Research predicts a massive increase in the amount of traffic that the network has to carry, and a subsequent slowdown, almost to the point of gridlock. This, the firm warns, could prevent innovation on the net, and stop "the next Google" from emerging.

"Our findings indicate that although core fibre and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years," the firm says.

"We estimate the financial investment required by access providers to 'bridge the gap' between demand and capacity ranges from $42 billion to $55 billion, or roughly 60-70 per cent more than service providers currently plan to invest."

We rang BT to get the company's response to the research, and discover whether or not a similar fate lies in store for British net users. But the owner of Blighty's broadband infrastructure started laughing before we could even frame our question.

We're not sure how to interpret this.

Is BT unconvinced that this is an issue even in the US? Or is the prospect of having to invest such vast sums of money so horribly terrifying that laughter is the only possible coping mechanism?

We did eventually manage to ask the telco for its opinion. "I'll think very carefully about the answer and send you an email," the press officer said.

We're still waiting. Presumably the reply has been caught up in a broadband traffic jam.

You can read more about the Nemertes research here . ®

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